Brighton
Model pick
59%
Fair odds 1.68Bookmakers 49%
Brentford
18%
Fair odds 5.60Bookmakers 26%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Brighton: 59% here, 49% with bookmakers; Brentford: 18% here, 26% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Brighton | Draw | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brighton
Brighton are rated 55 points above Brentford (1646 to 1592), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Brighton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Brighton's chance of winning and takes the same from Brentford's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brighton
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.0. Brighton score 1.9 a match against an average side (3rd in Premier League); Brentford concede 1.0 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Brighton WWLDW, gained 11 rating points; Brentford WDLDW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Brentford
Brighton will have had 3 days' rest, Brentford 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Brentford
Bookmakers rate Brentford higher than the model does: Brighton 49% against the model's 59%, Brentford 26% against 18%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Brighton
Brighton won 5, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BrightonBrentfordBrighton
4/10 over 2.5
22 scored
3 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Brentford
5/10 over 2.5
17 scored
10 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Brighton | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 35%2.87 | 3%29.50 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.76 | 13%7.63 | 6%16.50 |
| Brentford | 4%25.25 | 5%18.55 | 11%8.79 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Brighton wins2Brentford wins- W Brentford vs Brighton 0-2
- W Brighton vs Brentford 2-1
- L Brentford vs Brighton 4-2
- D Brighton vs Brentford 0-0
- D Brentford vs Brighton 0-0
- W Brighton vs Brentford 2-1
- D Brighton vs Brentford 3-3
- L Brentford vs Brighton 2-0
- W Brighton vs Brentford 2-0
- W Brentford vs Brighton 0-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Brighton's side.