Strasbourg
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.24
Brest
30%
Fair odds 3.30
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Strasbourg | Draw | Brest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Strasbourg
Strasbourg are rated 35 points above Brest (1530 to 1495), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Strasbourg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Strasbourg's chance of winning and takes the same from Brest's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Strasbourg
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.3. Strasbourg score 1.4 a match against an average side (7th in Ligue 1); Brest concede 1.2 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brest
Strasbourg WLLLL, lost 20 rating points; Brest WLDWL, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Strasbourg won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StrasbourgBrestStrasbourg
9/10 over 2.5
22 scored
23 conceded
05/17
08/21
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Brest
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
13 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/23
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Strasbourg | Draw | Brest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 26%3.78 | 5%20.16 | 2%49.02 |
| Level | 16%6.35 | 14%7.26 | 11%9.04 |
| Brest | 3%33.56 | 5%18.90 | 18%5.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Strasbourg wins4Brest wins- W Brest vs Strasbourg 1-2
- L Strasbourg vs Brest 1-2
- D Strasbourg vs Brest 0-0
- L Brest vs Strasbourg 3-1
- L Strasbourg vs Brest 0-3
- D Brest vs Strasbourg 1-1
- L Strasbourg vs Brest 0-1
- D Brest vs Strasbourg 1-1
- W Brest vs Strasbourg 0-1
- W Strasbourg vs Brest 3-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Strasbourg's side.