Hull
20%
Fair odds 5.03
Brighton
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.78
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hull | Draw | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brighton
Brighton are rated 150 points above Hull (1646 to 1496), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hull
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Hull's chance of winning and takes the same from Brighton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brighton
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.8. Hull score 1.2 a match against an average side (19th in Premier League); Brighton concede 0.8 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brighton
Hull DDLDL, lost 9 rating points; Brighton WWLDW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
HullBrightonHull
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
11 conceded
05/02
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Brighton
4/10 over 2.5
22 scored
3 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hull | Draw | Brighton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull | 14%7.14 | 7%15.17 | 5%20.66 |
| Level | 6%17.57 | 13%7.45 | 22%4.56 |
| Brighton | 1%— | 3%35.46 | 30%3.32 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.