Middlesbrough
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.54
Bristol City
15%
Fair odds 6.83
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Elo model | 60% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough are rated 99 points above Bristol City (1546 to 1448), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Middlesbrough
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Middlesbrough's chance of winning and takes the same from Bristol City's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Middlesbrough
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.9. Middlesbrough score 1.6 a match against an average side (2nd in Championship); Bristol City concede 1.3 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough LWWDW, gained 8 rating points; Bristol City LWDLL, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Bristol City
Middlesbrough won 1, drew 3 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MiddlesbroughBristol CityMiddlesbrough
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/23
10/31
11/04
Bristol City
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Middlesbrough | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 39%2.54 | 3%29.94 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.55 | 12%8.68 | 5%18.59 |
| Bristol City | 4%24.51 | 5%21.28 | 9%11.35 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Middlesbrough wins6Bristol City wins- D Middlesbrough vs Bristol City 1-1
- L Bristol City vs Middlesbrough 2-0
- L Bristol City vs Middlesbrough 2-1
- L Middlesbrough vs Bristol City 0-2
- L Middlesbrough vs Bristol City 1-2
- L Bristol City vs Middlesbrough 3-2
- D Bristol City vs Middlesbrough 2-2
- D Middlesbrough vs Bristol City 1-1
- L Bristol City vs Middlesbrough 2-1
- W Middlesbrough vs Bristol City 2-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Middlesbrough's side.