Cheltenham
35%
Fair odds 2.85
Bristol Rvs
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cheltenham | Draw | Bristol Rvs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs are rated 17 points above Cheltenham (1189 to 1171), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cheltenham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cheltenham's chance of winning and takes the same from Bristol Rvs's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.4. Cheltenham score 0.6 a match against an average side (22nd in League Two); Bristol Rvs concede 2.2 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cheltenham
Cheltenham LWWLL, lost 16 rating points; Bristol Rvs LDLLL, lost 36 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Bristol Rvs
Cheltenham won 1, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CheltenhamBristol RvsCheltenham
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bristol Rvs
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cheltenham | Draw | Bristol Rvs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 19%5.17 | 5%20.45 | 2%44.25 |
| Level | 14%7.20 | 16%6.41 | 14%6.94 |
| Bristol Rvs | 2%42.92 | 5%19.16 | 22%4.54 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Cheltenham wins4Bristol Rvs wins- L Bristol Rvs vs Cheltenham 4-0
- W Cheltenham vs Bristol Rvs 1-0
- L Cheltenham vs Bristol Rvs 1-3
- D Bristol Rvs vs Cheltenham 1-1
- L Bristol Rvs vs Cheltenham 2-1
- L Cheltenham vs Bristol Rvs 1-4
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cheltenham's side.