Reading
Model pick
74%
Fair odds 1.36
Bromley
10%
Fair odds 10.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Reading | Draw | Bromley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Elo model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Reading
Reading are rated 165 points above Bromley (1381 to 1217), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Reading
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Reading's chance of winning and takes the same from Bromley's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Reading
Expected goals 2.5 to 0.8. Reading score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in League One); Bromley concede 2.5 (24th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Reading
Reading LDWWL, barely moved; Bromley LLDLL, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ReadingBromleyReading
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bromley
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
25 conceded
09/01
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Reading | Draw | Bromley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reading | 47%2.15 | 3%34.13 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.29 | 9%10.83 | 4%24.81 |
| Bromley | 4%24.51 | 4%27.70 | 6%18.12 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.