FC Copenhagen
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.60Bookmakers 54%
Brondby
17%
Fair odds 5.94Bookmakers 22%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. FC Copenhagen: 62% here, 54% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FC Copenhagen | Draw | Brondby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Elo model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Best price on offer | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.65 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen are rated 100 points above Brondby (1497 to 1397), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours FC Copenhagen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to FC Copenhagen's chance of winning and takes the same from Brondby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Copenhagen
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.1. FC Copenhagen score 1.4 a match against an average side (1st in Danish Superliga); Brondby concede 1.6 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brondby
FC Copenhagen WWDDD, barely moved; Brondby WWLWL, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Brondby
FC Copenhagen will have had 3 days' rest, Brondby 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Brondby
Bookmakers rate Brondby higher than the model does: FC Copenhagen 54% against the model's 62%, Brondby 22% against 17%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen won 10, drew 4 and lost 5 of the last 19 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FC CopenhagenBrondbyFC Copenhagen
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
7 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/02
11/05
Brondby
8/10 over 2.5
19 scored
19 conceded
08/17
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/23
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FC Copenhagen | Draw | Brondby |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen | 33%3.07 | 2%42.02 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.19 | 11%9.26 | 4%22.42 |
| Brondby | 6%15.48 | 7%14.90 | 12%8.20 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
10FC Copenhagen wins5Brondby wins- W Brondby vs FC Copenhagen 0-1
- W FC Copenhagen vs Brondby 1-0
- L Brondby vs FC Copenhagen 2-1
- W Brondby vs FC Copenhagen 0-3
- L FC Copenhagen vs Brondby 1-2
- D Brondby vs FC Copenhagen 0-0
- W FC Copenhagen vs Brondby 3-1
- W Brondby vs FC Copenhagen 1-3
- L FC Copenhagen vs Brondby 1-2
- D FC Copenhagen vs Brondby 0-0
19 meetings in the data. Results shown from FC Copenhagen's side.