Sonderjyske
25%
Fair odds 3.94
Brondby
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sonderjyske | Draw | Brondby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brondby
Brondby are rated 102 points above Sonderjyske (1397 to 1294), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sonderjyske
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sonderjyske's chance of winning and takes the same from Brondby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brondby
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.9. Sonderjyske score 0.8 a match against an average side (11th in Danish Superliga); Brondby concede 1.6 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brondby
Sonderjyske LLWLW, barely moved; Brondby WWLWL, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Sonderjyske won 3, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SonderjyskeBrondbySonderjyske
8/10 over 2.5
15 scored
27 conceded
08/17
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/02
Brondby
8/10 over 2.5
19 scored
19 conceded
08/17
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/23
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sonderjyske | Draw | Brondby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonderjyske | 20%5.08 | 9%11.51 | 7%13.97 |
| Level | 6%17.99 | 12%8.52 | 22%4.58 |
| Brondby | 1%— | 2%44.64 | 23%4.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Sonderjyske wins4Brondby wins- L Brondby vs Sonderjyske 3-2
- W Sonderjyske vs Brondby 3-0
- L Brondby vs Sonderjyske 6-0
- D Brondby vs Sonderjyske 0-0
- W Sonderjyske vs Brondby 2-0
- D Sonderjyske vs Brondby 2-2
- L Brondby vs Sonderjyske 2-0
- L Brondby vs Sonderjyske 1-0
- W Sonderjyske vs Brondby 1-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sonderjyske's side.