Leganes
31%
Fair odds 3.19
Burgos
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.52
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Leganes | Draw | Burgos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Burgos
Burgos are rated 101 points above Leganes (1414 to 1313), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Leganes
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Leganes's chance of winning and takes the same from Burgos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Burgos
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.3. Leganes score 0.8 a match against an average side (22nd in La Liga 2); Burgos concede 1.3 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Burgos
Leganes LDLLL, lost 34 rating points; Burgos DWWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Burgos
Leganes won 2, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LeganesBurgosLeganes
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/20
09/28
10/03
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/02
Burgos
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/20
09/27
10/03
10/12
10/18
10/26
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Leganes | Draw | Burgos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes | 21%4.78 | 6%16.08 | 3%36.76 |
| Level | 10%10.04 | 18%5.56 | 16%6.06 |
| Burgos | 1%99.01 | 4%27.47 | 21%4.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Leganes wins4Burgos wins- L Burgos vs Leganes 2-1
- L Leganes vs Burgos 1-2
- W Leganes vs Burgos 2-0
- L Burgos vs Leganes 1-0
- W Burgos vs Leganes 0-3
- D Leganes vs Burgos 0-0
- L Burgos vs Leganes 4-0
- D Leganes vs Burgos 0-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Leganes's side.