Cardiff
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.01Bookmakers 44%
Burnley
26%
Fair odds 3.79Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cardiff | Draw | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.20 | 3.85 | 3.10 |
Team news
- Isaak Davies Out
- Krystian Bielik Doubtful
- Dylan Lawlor Out
- Calum Chambers Out
- Perry Ng Doubtful
Gabriel Osho is back after a three-match ban; Alex Robertson is being monitored. Full club list of 14 absentees is paywalled, so this list may be incomplete.
- Bashir Humphreys Out
- Armando Broja Out
- Ben Amos Out
- Jordan Beyer Out
- Shurandy Sambo Out
- Hannibal Out
- Jacob Bruun Larsen Out
- Dastan Satpayev Out
- Ashley Barnes Out
- Michael Obafemi Out
Zeki Amdouni is available after ankle recovery, per Celestini; he is not counted as an absence. The Burnley Express list mixes injuries and squad-list omissions, so reasons are unverified. Full team news is paywalled.
Allowing for this news: Cardiff 48%, draw 24%, Burnley 28% (xG 1.81 – 1.36). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sports.yahoo.com, the72.co.uk, burnleyexpress.net, sports.yahoo.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Cardiff and Burnley are rated almost level (1434 and 1434).
-
Home advantage Favours Cardiff
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cardiff's chance of winning and takes the same from Burnley's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cardiff
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.3. Cardiff score 1.2 a match against an average side (8th in Championship); Burnley concede 1.5 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cardiff
Cardiff DLWDW, gained 14 rating points; Burnley DDLLD, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Burnley
Bookmakers rate Burnley higher than the model does: Cardiff 44% against the model's 50%, Burnley 31% against 26%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Burnley
Cardiff won 0, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CardiffBurnleyCardiff
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Burnley
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/16
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 62%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cardiff | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 28%3.58 | 4%24.45 | 1%68.49 |
| Level | 18%5.48 | 13%7.84 | 9%11.45 |
| Burnley | 4%24.21 | 6%16.61 | 17%6.01 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Cardiff wins3Burnley wins- L Cardiff vs Burnley 1-2
- L Burnley vs Cardiff 5-0
- L Burnley vs Cardiff 3-0
- D Cardiff vs Burnley 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cardiff's side.