Goztep
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.08Bookmakers 46%
Buyuksehyr
27%
Fair odds 3.65Bookmakers 29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Goztep | Draw | Buyuksehyr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 24% | 27% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 26% | 29% |
| Best price on offer | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
Team news
- Ibrahim Sabra Out
- Furkan Bayır Out
- Ogün Bayrak Out
- Luka Gugeshashvili Out
Only the Mynet and Ege Saati reports are from the last few days; Sportsmole calls Bayır and Bayrak doubtful. Soccernews lists Koray Günter, Arda Kurtulan, Juan and Héliton as suspended, but Sportsmole says Juan should lead the attack, so that list looks stale.
- Jerome Opoku Out
- Christopher Operi Out
Only one recent report (Mynet, same day) names Başakşehir absences, with no reasons or positions given; no press-conference or club-site team news was found.
Allowing for this news: Goztep 47%, draw 24%, Buyuksehyr 29% (xG 1.78 – 1.35). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: mynet.com, egesaati.com.tr, sportsmole.co.uk, soccernews.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Buyuksehyr
Buyuksehyr are rated 14 points above Goztep (1557 to 1543), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Goztep
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Goztep's chance of winning and takes the same from Buyuksehyr's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Goztep
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.3. Goztep score 1.5 a match against an average side (6th in Süper Lig); Buyuksehyr concede 1.2 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Goztep
Goztep WWWWD, gained 42 rating points; Buyuksehyr WLWDW, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Goztep 46%, Buyuksehyr 29%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Goztep
Goztep won 4, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GoztepBuyuksehyrGoztep
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
17 conceded
08/17
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/25
10/31
Buyuksehyr
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/26
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Goztep | Draw | Buyuksehyr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goztep | 27%3.67 | 4%22.88 | 2%61.35 |
| Level | 18%5.63 | 13%7.42 | 10%10.37 |
| Buyuksehyr | 4%27.47 | 6%17.54 | 17%6.04 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Goztep wins2Buyuksehyr wins- L Buyuksehyr vs Goztep 2-1
- W Goztep vs Buyuksehyr 1-0
- W Goztep vs Buyuksehyr 4-1
- L Buyuksehyr vs Goztep 4-1
- W Buyuksehyr vs Goztep 1-2
- W Goztep vs Buyuksehyr 2-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Goztep's side.