Eibar
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.80
Cadiz
20%
Fair odds 5.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Eibar | Draw | Cadiz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Elo model | 63% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Eibar
Eibar are rated 126 points above Cadiz (1423 to 1297), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Eibar
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Eibar's chance of winning and takes the same from Cadiz's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Eibar
Expected goals 1.7 to 0.9. Eibar score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in La Liga 2); Cadiz concede 1.7 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cadiz
Eibar DLDLW, lost 16 rating points; Cadiz LWLLW, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Eibar won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EibarCadizEibar
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
11 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/19
09/27
10/03
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/31
Cadiz
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
14 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Eibar | Draw | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar | 36%2.81 | 5%21.69 | 1%78.12 |
| Level | 18%5.57 | 15%6.73 | 8%12.36 |
| Cadiz | 2%40.65 | 4%23.36 | 11%9.17 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Eibar wins1Cadiz wins- W Eibar vs Cadiz 3-1
- L Cadiz vs Eibar 1-0
- D Cadiz vs Eibar 0-0
- W Eibar vs Cadiz 1-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Eibar's side.