Sociedad
Model pick
77%
Fair odds 1.31
Cadiz
8%
Fair odds 12.25
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sociedad | Draw | Cadiz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Elo model | 74% | 19% | 7% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sociedad
Sociedad are rated 220 points above Cadiz (1517 to 1297), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sociedad
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Sociedad's chance of winning and takes the same from Cadiz's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sociedad
Expected goals 2.6 to 0.8. Sociedad score 1.5 a match against an average side (4th in La Liga); Cadiz concede 1.7 (18th best defence in La Liga 2).
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Last 5 matches Favours Sociedad
Sociedad DLWWW, gained 25 rating points; Cadiz LWLLW, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Sociedad
Sociedad won 4, drew 2 and lost 0 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SociedadCadizSociedad
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
16 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Cadiz
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
14 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sociedad | Draw | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sociedad | 48%2.10 | 2%42.92 | 0%— |
| Level | 25%4.03 | 9%11.51 | 3%31.95 |
| Cadiz | 4%22.62 | 4%27.86 | 5%20.62 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Sociedad wins0Cadiz wins- W Sociedad vs Cadiz 2-0
- D Cadiz vs Sociedad 0-0
- D Sociedad vs Cadiz 0-0
- W Cadiz vs Sociedad 0-1
- W Sociedad vs Cadiz 3-0
- W Cadiz vs Sociedad 0-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sociedad's side.