Como
Model pick
84%
Fair odds 1.19
Cagliari
5%
Fair odds 19.80
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Como | Draw | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| Elo model | 73% | 20% | 8% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Como
Como are rated 206 points above Cagliari (1658 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Como
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Como's chance of winning and takes the same from Cagliari's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Como
Expected goals 3.0 to 0.7. Como score 2.3 a match against an average side (1st in Serie A); Cagliari concede 1.3 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Como
Como WWWWW, gained 49 rating points; Cagliari LLLLD, lost 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Como won 2, drew 3 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ComoCagliariComo
6/10 over 2.5
26 scored
10 conceded
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/18
10/21
10/24
10/27
11/01
11/04
Cagliari
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
15 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/19
10/24
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 4-0
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 5-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Como | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 44%2.25 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 32%3.15 | 6%17.36 | 1%71.43 |
| Cagliari | 8%12.45 | 4%25.71 | 4%26.95 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Como wins1Cagliari wins- W Cagliari vs Como 1-2
- D Como vs Cagliari 0-0
- W Como vs Cagliari 3-1
- D Cagliari vs Como 1-1
- L Cagliari vs Como 2-0
- D Como vs Cagliari 1-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Como's side.