Bristol Rvs
28%
Fair odds 3.60
Cambridge
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.44
Live probabilities. Before kick-off: 29% / 27% / 44%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bristol Rvs | Draw | Cambridge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Elo model | 28% | 28% | 45% |
Team news
No absences reported
No recent (last three days) injury or suspension report found for Bristol Rovers. The only Rovers availability news found (Kamwa, Harrison, Leigh and Balmer) dates from about 62 days ago, so it was excluded.
- Gassan Ahadme Out
- Dom Ball Out
Cambridge boss Neil Harris said Ahadme has missed the last four fixtures and will not be risked, with a return hoped for the League One game against Stockport County on 21 November. Ahadme's regular-starter status is not confirmed in the reports.
Allowing for this news: Bristol Rvs 29%, draw 27%, Cambridge 44% (xG 1.14 – 1.45). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: cambridgeindependent.co.uk, cambridgeindependent.co.uk, cambridgeindependent.co.uk, sportsmole.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cambridge
Cambridge are rated 124 points above Bristol Rvs (1312 to 1189), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bristol Rvs
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bristol Rvs's chance of winning and takes the same from Cambridge's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cambridge
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.5. Bristol Rvs score 0.7 a match against an average side (14th in League Two); Cambridge concede 1.7 (13th best defence in League One).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cambridge
Bristol Rvs LDLLL, lost 36 rating points; Cambridge LDLDW, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs won 6, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Bristol RvsCambridgeBristol Rvs
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Cambridge
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bristol Rvs | Draw | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rvs | 18%5.58 | 6%16.45 | 3%29.41 |
| Level | 10%9.70 | 16%6.20 | 19%5.33 |
| Cambridge | 1%80.00 | 4%26.25 | 22%4.47 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Bristol Rvs wins2Cambridge wins- L Cambridge vs Bristol Rvs 3-1
- W Bristol Rvs vs Cambridge 1-0
- W Cambridge vs Bristol Rvs 0-1
- W Bristol Rvs vs Cambridge 2-0
- W Bristol Rvs vs Cambridge 1-0
- L Cambridge vs Bristol Rvs 2-0
- W Cambridge vs Bristol Rvs 1-2
- W Bristol Rvs vs Cambridge 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bristol Rvs's side.