Utrecht
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.39
Cambuur
34%
Fair odds 2.91
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Utrecht | Draw | Cambuur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Utrecht
Utrecht are rated 68 points above Cambuur (1492 to 1424), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Utrecht
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Utrecht's chance of winning and takes the same from Cambuur's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Utrecht
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.6. Utrecht score 1.2 a match against an average side (11th in Eredivisie); Cambuur concede 1.5 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cambuur
Utrecht LDWWL, lost 8 rating points; Cambuur WWDWD, gained 53 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Utrecht won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
UtrechtCambuurUtrecht
9/10 over 2.5
18 scored
29 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Cambuur
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
18 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Utrecht | Draw | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 29%3.42 | 7%14.03 | 4%24.69 |
| Level | 11%8.89 | 12%8.30 | 14%7.22 |
| Cambuur | 2%55.25 | 4%26.81 | 17%5.92 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Utrecht wins1Cambuur wins- W Cambuur vs Utrecht 0-3
- D Utrecht vs Cambuur 0-0
- W Utrecht vs Cambuur 3-2
- L Cambuur vs Utrecht 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Utrecht's side.