Norwich
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.77
Cardiff
22%
Fair odds 4.62
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Norwich | Draw | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Norwich
Norwich are rated 60 points above Cardiff (1495 to 1434), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Norwich
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Norwich's chance of winning and takes the same from Cardiff's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Norwich
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.2. Norwich score 1.3 a match against an average side (5th in Championship); Cardiff concede 1.5 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Norwich WWWLL, gained 16 rating points; Cardiff DLWDW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Norwich
Norwich won 4, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NorwichCardiffNorwich
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Cardiff
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Norwich | Draw | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 36%2.80 | 5%21.41 | 2%59.52 |
| Level | 18%5.67 | 12%8.61 | 8%12.53 |
| Cardiff | 4%28.41 | 5%20.79 | 12%8.09 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Norwich wins2Cardiff wins- W Norwich vs Cardiff 4-2
- L Cardiff vs Norwich 2-1
- W Norwich vs Cardiff 4-1
- W Cardiff vs Norwich 2-3
- W Norwich vs Cardiff 2-0
- L Cardiff vs Norwich 1-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Norwich's side.