Barrow
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62
Carlisle
36%
Fair odds 2.75
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Barrow | Draw | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Carlisle
Carlisle are rated 39 points above Barrow (1169 to 1130), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Barrow
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Barrow's chance of winning and takes the same from Carlisle's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.5. Barrow score 0.6 a match against an average side (5th in National League); Carlisle concede 2.5 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Barrow DWWWW, gained 22 rating points; Carlisle WWWDW, gained 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Carlisle
Barrow won 0, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BarrowCarlisleBarrow
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
10 conceded
09/05
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/27
10/31
Carlisle
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
13 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Barrow | Draw | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow | 23%4.41 | 5%18.90 | 2%40.00 |
| Level | 13%7.41 | 14%7.13 | 13%7.60 |
| Carlisle | 2%40.16 | 5%19.38 | 21%4.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Barrow wins5Carlisle wins- L Barrow vs Carlisle 0-1
- L Carlisle vs Barrow 1-0
- L Barrow vs Carlisle 0-1
- L Carlisle vs Barrow 5-1
- L Barrow vs Carlisle 1-2
- D Carlisle vs Barrow 0-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Barrow's side.