Alverca
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.66Bookmakers 53%
Casa Pia
16%
Fair odds 6.17Bookmakers 21%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Alverca | Draw | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 23% | 16% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Best price on offer | 1.78 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
Team news
- Bastien Meupiyou Out
- Sabit Abdulai Out
- Jhonatan Luiz Doubtful
- Rayan Lucas Doubtful
Steven Baseya and André Vidigal have served suspensions and are available; Sergio Ferreira's squad news from 1-2 days ago.
- André Gomes Out
Jérémy Livolant is pushing for a start after playing 45 minutes against Sporting; no other recent absences reported.
Allowing for this news: Alverca 61%, draw 23%, Casa Pia 16% (xG 1.86 – 0.84). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: record.pt, abola.pt, sportsmole.co.uk, abola.pt
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Alverca
Alverca are rated 68 points above Casa Pia (1483 to 1415), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Alverca
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Alverca's chance of winning and takes the same from Casa Pia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Alverca
Expected goals 1.8 to 0.8. Alverca score 1.2 a match against an average side (9th in Primeira Liga); Casa Pia concede 1.5 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Alverca
Alverca LLWWW, gained 28 rating points; Casa Pia LWLWL, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Casa Pia
Bookmakers rate Casa Pia higher than the model does: Alverca 53% against the model's 60%, Casa Pia 21% against 16%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AlvercaCasa PiaAlverca
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
14 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/12
10/24
11/02
Casa Pia
3/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
08/08
08/17
08/24
08/30
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 49%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Alverca | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 34%2.93 | 3%31.95 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.35 | 14%7.03 | 6%16.98 |
| Casa Pia | 4%26.46 | 5%19.46 | 10%9.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Alverca wins0Casa Pia wins- W Alverca vs Casa Pia 3-1
- W Casa Pia vs Alverca 0-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Alverca's side.