Valladolid
30%
Fair odds 3.33
Castellon
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.26
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Valladolid | Draw | Castellon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Elo model | 25% | 27% | 47% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Castellon
Castellon are rated 143 points above Valladolid (1466 to 1324), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Valladolid
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Valladolid's chance of winning and takes the same from Castellon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Castellon
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. Valladolid score 1.0 a match against an average side (11th in La Liga 2); Castellon concede 1.3 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Valladolid WLLWD, gained 11 rating points; Castellon DWWLD, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ValladolidCastellonValladolid
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/04
10/12
10/18
10/23
11/02
Castellon
5/10 over 2.5
22 scored
5 conceded
09/06
09/12
09/19
09/28
10/04
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Valladolid | Draw | Castellon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid | 20%5.09 | 6%16.10 | 3%29.07 |
| Level | 10%10.50 | 14%6.94 | 17%6.02 |
| Castellon | 1%72.46 | 4%24.45 | 25%4.05 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Valladolid wins1Castellon wins- L Valladolid vs Castellon 0-4
- W Castellon vs Valladolid 0-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Valladolid's side.