Cesena
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.25Bookmakers 44%
Catanzaro
30%
Fair odds 3.33Bookmakers 29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cesena | Draw | Catanzaro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 25% | 30% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Best price on offer | 2.15 | 3.55 | 3.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Catanzaro
Catanzaro are rated 15 points above Cesena (1333 to 1318), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cesena
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cesena's chance of winning and takes the same from Catanzaro's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cesena
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Cesena score 0.8 a match against an average side (18th in Serie B); Catanzaro concede 1.9 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cesena
Cesena DWLDL, lost 10 rating points; Catanzaro DDLDL, lost 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Cesena 44%, Catanzaro 29%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Cesena won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CesenaCatanzaroCesena
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/27
10/31
Catanzaro
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
22 conceded
08/21
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 54%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cesena | Draw | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | 26%3.89 | 5%21.10 | 2%54.05 |
| Level | 16%6.15 | 14%7.00 | 11%9.16 |
| Catanzaro | 3%32.89 | 5%18.38 | 18%5.63 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Cesena wins2Catanzaro wins- W Cesena vs Catanzaro 3-1
- L Catanzaro vs Cesena 2-0
- L Catanzaro vs Cesena 4-2
- W Cesena vs Catanzaro 2-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cesena's side.