Juve Stabia
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.86
Catanzaro
22%
Fair odds 4.54
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Juve Stabia | Draw | Catanzaro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia are rated 27 points above Catanzaro (1360 to 1333), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Juve Stabia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Juve Stabia's chance of winning and takes the same from Catanzaro's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Juve Stabia
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Juve Stabia score 0.9 a match against an average side (10th in Serie B); Catanzaro concede 1.9 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia DLWWD, gained 14 rating points; Catanzaro DDLDL, lost 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Juve Stabia won 1, drew 3 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Juve StabiaCatanzaroJuve Stabia
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Catanzaro
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
22 conceded
08/21
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Juve Stabia | Draw | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia | 30%3.29 | 4%25.84 | 1%87.72 |
| Level | 20%5.00 | 14%7.19 | 8%12.69 |
| Catanzaro | 4%26.60 | 6%18.05 | 13%7.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Juve Stabia wins0Catanzaro wins- D Juve Stabia vs Catanzaro 1-1
- D Catanzaro vs Juve Stabia 2-2
- W Juve Stabia vs Catanzaro 2-0
- D Catanzaro vs Juve Stabia 0-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Juve Stabia's side.