Burgos
35%
Fair odds 2.89
Celta
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.81
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Burgos | Draw | Celta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 30% | 36% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Celta
Celta are rated 78 points above Burgos (1492 to 1414), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Burgos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Burgos's chance of winning and takes the same from Celta's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.1. Burgos score 0.9 a match against an average side (18th in La Liga 2); Celta concede 1.3 (10th best defence in La Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Burgos DWWLL, barely moved; Celta LLDWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Burgos
Celta will have had 2 days' rest, Burgos 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BurgosCeltaBurgos
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/20
09/27
10/03
10/12
10/18
10/26
11/01
Celta
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
09/13
09/16
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Burgos | Draw | Celta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 20%4.97 | 4%22.52 | 1%69.93 |
| Level | 13%7.51 | 19%5.24 | 12%8.03 |
| Celta | 2%56.82 | 5%19.34 | 22%4.49 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.