Real Madrid
Model pick
78%
Fair odds 1.28
Celta
8%
Fair odds 12.76
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Real Madrid | Draw | Celta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Elo model | 75% | 18% | 7% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Real Madrid
Real Madrid are rated 225 points above Celta (1716 to 1492), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Real Madrid
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Real Madrid's chance of winning and takes the same from Celta's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Real Madrid
Expected goals 2.8 to 0.8. Real Madrid score 2.2 a match against an average side (2nd in La Liga); Celta concede 1.3 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Real Madrid
Real Madrid WWWWW, gained 30 rating points; Celta LLDWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Real Madrid
Real Madrid won 9, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Real MadridCeltaReal Madrid
9/10 over 2.5
29 scored
13 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/18
10/21
10/25
11/04
Celta
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
09/13
09/16
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 4-0
- 1-1
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Real Madrid | Draw | Celta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 49%2.03 | 2%44.64 | 0%— |
| Level | 24%4.13 | 8%12.90 | 3%34.60 |
| Celta | 5%20.96 | 4%28.01 | 5%21.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
9Real Madrid wins1Celta wins- W Celta vs Real Madrid 1-2
- L Real Madrid vs Celta 0-2
- W Real Madrid vs Celta 3-2
- W Celta vs Real Madrid 1-2
- W Real Madrid vs Celta 4-0
- W Celta vs Real Madrid 0-1
- W Real Madrid vs Celta 2-0
- W Celta vs Real Madrid 1-4
- W Celta vs Real Madrid 1-2
- W Real Madrid vs Celta 5-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Real Madrid's side.