Burgos
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.94Bookmakers 56%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Burgos | Draw | Celta B | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 26% | 23% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Best price on offer | 1.72 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Burgos
Burgos are rated 79 points above Celta B (1414 to 1334), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
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Home advantage Favours Burgos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Burgos's chance of winning and takes the same from Celta B's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Burgos
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.0. Burgos score 0.9 a match against an average side (18th in La Liga 2); Celta B concede 1.8 (24th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Neutral
Burgos DWWLL, barely moved; Celta B DLDWL, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Burgos
Bookmakers rate Burgos higher than the model does: Burgos 56% against the model's 52%, Celta B 19% against 23%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BurgosCelta BBurgos
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/20
09/27
10/03
10/12
10/18
10/26
11/01
08/31
09/05
09/14
09/20
09/26
10/04
10/19
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 51%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Burgos | Draw | Celta B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 31%3.19 | 4%23.58 | 1%86.21 |
| Level | 18%5.54 | 15%6.49 | 8%12.08 |
| Celta B | 3%35.46 | 5%19.65 | 14%7.33 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.