Torreense
18%
Fair odds 5.71Bookmakers 22%
Celtic
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.59Bookmakers 54%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Celtic: 63% here, 54% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Torreense | Draw | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 18% | 20% | 63% |
| Elo model | 13% | 23% | 63% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 22% | 23% | 54% |
| Best price on offer | 4.46 | 4.16 | 1.76 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Celtic
Celtic are rated 254 points above Torreense (1607 to 1353), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Torreense
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Torreense's chance of winning and takes the same from Celtic's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Celtic
Expected goals 1.2 to 2.4. Torreense score 1.0 a match against an average side; Celtic concede 1.2 (2nd best defence in Scottish Premiership).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Torreense
Torreense WLLW, barely moved; Celtic WLDWL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Torreense
Bookmakers rate Torreense higher than the model does: Torreense 22% against the model's 18%, Celtic 54% against 63%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TorreenseCelticTorreense
4/4 over 2.5
7 scored
9 conceded
09/17
10/15
10/22
11/05
Celtic
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
18 conceded
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 60%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 0-1
- 0-3
- 2-2
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Torreense | Draw | Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense | 11%8.87 | 6%17.24 | 6%16.47 |
| Level | 6%17.86 | 10%10.07 | 23%4.40 |
| Celtic | 1%— | 3%32.36 | 35%2.89 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.