Gamba Osaka
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.81Bookmakers 42%
Cerezo Osaka
22%
Fair odds 4.60Bookmakers 31%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Gamba Osaka: 55% here, 42% with bookmakers; Cerezo Osaka: 22% here, 31% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gamba Osaka | Draw | Cerezo Osaka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 42% | 26% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka are rated 14 points above Cerezo Osaka (1343 to 1329), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gamba Osaka
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Gamba Osaka's chance of winning and takes the same from Cerezo Osaka's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Gamba Osaka
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Gamba Osaka score 0.8 a match against an average side (10th in J1 League); Cerezo Osaka concede 2.3 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka DDWDL, gained 8 rating points; Cerezo Osaka LDDLD, lost 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Cerezo Osaka
Bookmakers rate Cerezo Osaka higher than the model does: Gamba Osaka 42% against the model's 55%, Cerezo Osaka 31% against 22%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka won 2, drew 0 and lost 7 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Gamba OsakaCerezo OsakaGamba Osaka
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/17
10/21
10/24
11/01
Cerezo Osaka
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gamba Osaka | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka | 31%3.21 | 3%29.24 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%5.02 | 13%7.94 | 7%15.17 |
| Cerezo Osaka | 5%22.03 | 6%16.08 | 15%6.85 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Gamba Osaka wins7Cerezo Osaka wins- W Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka 0-1
- L Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka 2-5
- L Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka 1-0
- W Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka 1-0
- L Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka 1-0
- L Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka 1-2
- L Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka 1-2
- L Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka 3-1
- L Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka 0-1
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gamba Osaka's side.