Urawa Reds
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.86
Cerezo Osaka
22%
Fair odds 4.46
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Urawa Reds | Draw | Cerezo Osaka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Urawa Reds
Urawa Reds are rated 39 points above Cerezo Osaka (1368 to 1329), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Urawa Reds
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Urawa Reds's chance of winning and takes the same from Cerezo Osaka's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Urawa Reds
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Urawa Reds score 0.8 a match against an average side (12th in J1 League); Cerezo Osaka concede 2.3 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Urawa Reds
Urawa Reds LWWWL, barely moved; Cerezo Osaka LDDLD, lost 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Cerezo Osaka
Urawa Reds won 2, drew 2 and lost 5 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Urawa RedsCerezo OsakaUrawa Reds
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Cerezo Osaka
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Urawa Reds | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urawa Reds | 31%3.23 | 4%28.09 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.21 | 13%7.66 | 7%14.62 |
| Cerezo Osaka | 4%23.92 | 6%16.29 | 15%6.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Urawa Reds wins5Cerezo Osaka wins- D Urawa Reds vs Cerezo Osaka 0-0
- D Cerezo Osaka vs Urawa Reds 1-1
- L Urawa Reds vs Cerezo Osaka 0-1
- L Cerezo Osaka vs Urawa Reds 2-1
- L Cerezo Osaka vs Urawa Reds 2-0
- W Urawa Reds vs Cerezo Osaka 2-1
- L Urawa Reds vs Cerezo Osaka 0-1
- L Cerezo Osaka vs Urawa Reds 2-0
- W Urawa Reds vs Cerezo Osaka 2-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Urawa Reds's side.