Cordoba
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.66Bookmakers 62%
Ceuta
19%
Fair odds 5.36Bookmakers 18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cordoba | Draw | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Best price on offer | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.70 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cordoba
Cordoba are rated 60 points above Ceuta (1347 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cordoba
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cordoba's chance of winning and takes the same from Ceuta's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cordoba
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.1. Cordoba score 1.1 a match against an average side (4th in La Liga 2); Ceuta concede 1.9 (26th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cordoba
Cordoba DWWLW, gained 22 rating points; Ceuta LLLLD, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Cordoba 62%, Ceuta 18%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CordobaCeutaCordoba
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/18
09/27
10/05
10/10
10/16
10/24
Ceuta
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/30
09/11
09/20
10/04
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 65%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cordoba | Draw | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba | 37%2.72 | 4%25.13 | 1%78.74 |
| Level | 20%5.02 | 11%8.94 | 7%14.84 |
| Ceuta | 4%23.98 | 5%20.08 | 11%9.11 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Cordoba wins1Ceuta wins- L Ceuta vs Cordoba 3-2
- W Cordoba vs Ceuta 2-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cordoba's side.