Tenerife
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.03
Ceuta
24%
Fair odds 4.23
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tenerife | Draw | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Tenerife
Tenerife are rated 44 points above Ceuta (1330 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tenerife
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Tenerife's chance of winning and takes the same from Ceuta's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Tenerife
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.0. Tenerife score 0.8 a match against an average side (24th in La Liga 2); Ceuta concede 1.9 (26th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Tenerife
Tenerife DDDLD, barely moved; Ceuta LLLLD, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
TenerifeCeutaTenerife
2/10 over 2.5
10 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/28
09/13
09/19
09/26
10/05
10/12
10/25
Ceuta
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/30
09/11
09/20
10/04
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tenerife | Draw | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife | 29%3.46 | 4%23.92 | 1%87.72 |
| Level | 18%5.45 | 17%6.00 | 9%11.16 |
| Ceuta | 3%37.59 | 5%19.65 | 14%7.12 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.