Inter Miami
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.27Bookmakers 67%
Charlotte
34%
Fair odds 2.93Bookmakers 15%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Inter Miami: 44% here, 67% with bookmakers; Charlotte: 34% here, 15% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Inter Miami | Draw | Charlotte | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 67% | 17% | 15% |
| Best price on offer | 1.40 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Inter Miami
Inter Miami are rated 59 points above Charlotte (1454 to 1395), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Inter Miami
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Inter Miami's chance of winning and takes the same from Charlotte's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Inter Miami
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.8. Inter Miami score 1.3 a match against an average side (1st in MLS); Charlotte concede 1.7 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Inter Miami WDLWW, barely moved; Charlotte WWLDL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Inter Miami
Bookmakers rate Inter Miami higher than the model does: Inter Miami 67% against the model's 44%, Charlotte 15% against 34%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Inter Miami won 3, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Inter MiamiCharlotteInter Miami
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
13 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/21
09/28
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/28
11/02
Charlotte
9/10 over 2.5
23 scored
16 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/17
10/25
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 3-2
- 2-0
- 2-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Inter Miami | Draw | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 26%3.85 | 6%17.51 | 4%26.11 |
| Level | 15%6.66 | 11%9.35 | 13%7.46 |
| Charlotte | 3%28.74 | 5%21.51 | 17%5.80 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Inter Miami wins3Charlotte wins- D Charlotte vs Inter Miami 0-0
- L Charlotte vs Inter Miami 3-0
- W Inter Miami vs Charlotte 1-0
- D Inter Miami vs Charlotte 1-1
- W Charlotte vs Inter Miami 1-2
- L Charlotte vs Inter Miami 1-0
- D Inter Miami vs Charlotte 2-2
- W Inter Miami vs Charlotte 3-2
- L Charlotte vs Inter Miami 1-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Inter Miami's side.