Sunderland
34%
Fair odds 2.94Bookmakers 25%
Chelsea
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.54Bookmakers 49%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Sunderland: 34% here, 25% with bookmakers; Chelsea: 39% here, 49% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sunderland | Draw | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Best price on offer | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Chelsea
Chelsea are rated 87 points above Sunderland (1586 to 1499), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sunderland
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sunderland's chance of winning and takes the same from Chelsea's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.4. Sunderland score 1.2 a match against an average side (20th in Premier League); Chelsea concede 1.1 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Chelsea
Sunderland LLDDL, lost 29 rating points; Chelsea WLWWL, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Chelsea
Sunderland will have had 3 days' rest, Chelsea 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Chelsea
Bookmakers rate Chelsea higher than the model does: Sunderland 25% against the model's 34%, Chelsea 49% against 39%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SunderlandChelseaSunderland
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
18 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Chelsea
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
17 conceded
05/24
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sunderland | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 20%4.94 | 5%18.52 | 3%38.91 |
| Level | 12%8.12 | 15%6.49 | 15%6.74 |
| Chelsea | 2%51.55 | 5%20.83 | 22%4.45 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Sunderland wins0Chelsea wins- W Sunderland vs Chelsea 2-1
- W Chelsea vs Sunderland 1-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sunderland's side.