Exeter
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.60
Cheltenham
15%
Fair odds 6.60
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Exeter | Draw | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Exeter
Exeter are rated 110 points above Cheltenham (1281 to 1171), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Exeter
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Exeter's chance of winning and takes the same from Cheltenham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Exeter
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.8. Exeter score 0.7 a match against an average side (6th in League Two); Cheltenham concede 2.6 (23rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Exeter
Exeter LWWDW, gained 12 rating points; Cheltenham LWWLL, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Exeter won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ExeterCheltenhamExeter
2/10 over 2.5
7 scored
5 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Cheltenham
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Exeter | Draw | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter | 40%2.51 | 4%24.69 | 1%97.09 |
| Level | 20%4.88 | 13%7.50 | 7%15.34 |
| Cheltenham | 3%35.71 | 4%25.64 | 8%12.45 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Exeter wins2Cheltenham wins- W Cheltenham vs Exeter 1-2
- W Exeter vs Cheltenham 1-0
- L Cheltenham vs Exeter 3-1
- L Exeter vs Cheltenham 0-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Exeter's side.