Shandong Taishan
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.62Bookmakers 41%
Chengdu Rongcheng
18%
Fair odds 5.55Bookmakers 35%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Shandong Taishan: 62% here, 41% with bookmakers; Chengdu Rongcheng: 18% here, 35% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Shandong Taishan | Draw | Chengdu Rongcheng | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| Best price on offer | 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.70 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Shandong Taishan and Chengdu Rongcheng are rated almost level (1456 and 1462).
-
Home advantage Favours Shandong Taishan
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Shandong Taishan's chance of winning and takes the same from Chengdu Rongcheng's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Shandong Taishan
Expected goals 2.3 to 1.2. Shandong Taishan score 1.4 a match against an average side (2nd in Chinese Super League); Chengdu Rongcheng concede 1.7 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Shandong Taishan
Shandong Taishan WWDDW, gained 23 rating points; Chengdu Rongcheng LLLDW, lost 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Chengdu Rongcheng
Bookmakers rate Chengdu Rongcheng higher than the model does: Shandong Taishan 41% against the model's 62%, Chengdu Rongcheng 35% against 18%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Chengdu Rongcheng
Shandong Taishan won 3, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Shandong TaishanChengdu RongchengShandong Taishan
6/10 over 2.5
22 scored
13 conceded
07/26
08/01
08/09
08/14
08/22
08/28
09/05
10/11
10/17
10/24
Chengdu Rongcheng
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
07/26
08/01
08/08
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/06
10/10
10/18
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Shandong Taishan | Draw | Chengdu Rongcheng |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Taishan | 32%3.13 | 3%36.36 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.23 | 10%9.84 | 5%18.76 |
| Chengdu Rongcheng | 7%14.90 | 6%15.58 | 12%8.18 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Shandong Taishan wins5Chengdu Rongcheng wins- L Chengdu Rongcheng vs Shandong Taishan 1-0
- L Chengdu Rongcheng vs Shandong Taishan 2-1
- L Shandong Taishan vs Chengdu Rongcheng 0-3
- W Shandong Taishan vs Chengdu Rongcheng 3-0
- W Chengdu Rongcheng vs Shandong Taishan 0-1
- L Shandong Taishan vs Chengdu Rongcheng 0-1
- D Chengdu Rongcheng vs Shandong Taishan 2-2
- L Chengdu Rongcheng vs Shandong Taishan 2-1
- W Shandong Taishan vs Chengdu Rongcheng 2-1
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Shandong Taishan's side.