Bristol Rvs
35%
Fair odds 2.85
Chesterfield
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bristol Rvs | Draw | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Chesterfield
Chesterfield are rated 54 points above Bristol Rvs (1242 to 1189), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bristol Rvs
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bristol Rvs's chance of winning and takes the same from Chesterfield's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.4. Bristol Rvs score 0.7 a match against an average side (14th in League Two); Chesterfield concede 1.9 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Chesterfield
Bristol Rvs LDLLL, lost 36 rating points; Chesterfield LWDLD, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Bristol RvsChesterfieldBristol Rvs
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Chesterfield
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bristol Rvs | Draw | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rvs | 21%4.66 | 6%17.36 | 3%35.84 |
| Level | 12%8.10 | 16%6.45 | 15%6.57 |
| Chesterfield | 2%55.87 | 4%22.47 | 21%4.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Bristol Rvs wins2Chesterfield wins- L Bristol Rvs vs Chesterfield 2-3
- L Chesterfield vs Bristol Rvs 3-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bristol Rvs's side.