Beijing Guoan
Model pick
73%
Fair odds 1.37Bookmakers 72%
Chongqing Tonglianglong
10%
Fair odds 9.84Bookmakers 11%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Chongqing Tonglianglong | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Elo model | 66% | 22% | 11% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Best price on offer | 1.31 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan are rated 148 points above Chongqing Tonglianglong (1497 to 1349), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Beijing Guoan
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Beijing Guoan's chance of winning and takes the same from Chongqing Tonglianglong's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Beijing Guoan
Expected goals 2.5 to 0.8. Beijing Guoan score 1.5 a match against an average side (1st in Chinese Super League); Chongqing Tonglianglong concede 1.7 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Beijing Guoan WWWDD, gained 18 rating points; Chongqing Tonglianglong WDDLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Beijing Guoan 72%, Chongqing Tonglianglong 11%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Beijing GuoanChongqing TonglianglongBeijing Guoan
7/10 over 2.5
25 scored
10 conceded
08/01
08/07
08/15
08/18
08/22
08/28
09/05
10/09
10/18
10/24
Chongqing Tonglianglong
2/10 over 2.5
8 scored
13 conceded
07/25
08/02
08/09
08/14
08/23
08/29
09/06
10/11
10/17
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Beijing Guoan | Draw | Chongqing Tonglianglong |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan | 34%2.90 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 29%3.41 | 8%12.25 | 2%61.73 |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong | 10%10.44 | 7%14.16 | 9%11.48 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Beijing Guoan wins0Chongqing Tonglianglong wins- W Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Beijing Guoan 2-3
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Beijing Guoan's side.