Annecy
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.79
Clermont
19%
Fair odds 5.29
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Annecy | Draw | Clermont | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Annecy
Annecy are rated 70 points above Clermont (1379 to 1310), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Annecy
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Annecy's chance of winning and takes the same from Clermont's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Annecy
Expected goals 1.7 to 0.9. Annecy score 1.0 a match against an average side (12th in Ligue 2); Clermont concede 1.7 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Annecy LWLWL, lost 16 rating points; Clermont DLDLD, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Annecy
Annecy won 3, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AnnecyClermontAnnecy
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
08/14
08/24
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/18
10/09
10/16
10/23
10/31
Clermont
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
15 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/04
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/16
10/23
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Annecy | Draw | Clermont |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annecy | 35%2.89 | 4%23.53 | 1%91.74 |
| Level | 19%5.18 | 16%6.44 | 8%12.82 |
| Clermont | 3%39.22 | 4%22.94 | 10%9.55 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Annecy wins1Clermont wins- W Annecy vs Clermont 2-1
- W Clermont vs Annecy 0-1
- L Clermont vs Annecy 3-2
- W Annecy vs Clermont 2-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Annecy's side.