Tigres UANL
27%
Fair odds 3.68
Club America
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.14
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tigres UANL | Draw | Club America | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Club America
Club America are rated 85 points above Tigres UANL (1470 to 1385), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tigres UANL
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Tigres UANL's chance of winning and takes the same from Club America's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Club America
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.6. Tigres UANL score 0.8 a match against an average side (15th in Liga MX); Club America concede 1.5 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Club America
Tigres UANL LDLDW, lost 14 rating points; Club America DDLWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Club America
Tigres UANL won 2, drew 3 and lost 7 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Tigres UANLClub AmericaTigres UANL
2/10 over 2.5
7 scored
12 conceded
09/06
09/13
09/19
09/27
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
Club America
7/10 over 2.5
26 scored
19 conceded
08/30
09/13
09/20
09/28
10/11
10/18
10/22
10/26
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tigres UANL | Draw | Club America |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 22%4.57 | 9%11.70 | 5%19.61 |
| Level | 5%18.80 | 14%6.93 | 19%5.16 |
| Club America | 0%— | 2%44.84 | 23%4.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Tigres UANL wins7Club America wins- W Club America vs Tigres UANL 1-4
- L Tigres UANL vs Club America 1-3
- L Club America vs Tigres UANL 3-0
- W Tigres UANL vs Club America 1-0
- L Club America vs Tigres UANL 2-0
- D Club America vs Tigres UANL 0-0
- D Tigres UANL vs Club America 1-1
- D Tigres UANL vs Club America 0-0
- L Tigres UANL vs Club America 0-2
- L Club America vs Tigres UANL 2-1
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Tigres UANL's side.