UNAM Pumas
34%
Fair odds 2.91Bookmakers 31%
Club America
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.48Bookmakers 43%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| UNAM Pumas | Draw | Club America | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 25% | 40% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Best price on offer | 3.20 | 3.70 | 2.18 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Club America
Club America are rated 61 points above UNAM Pumas (1470 to 1409), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours UNAM Pumas
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to UNAM Pumas's chance of winning and takes the same from Club America's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.6. UNAM Pumas score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in Liga MX); Club America concede 1.5 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
UNAM Pumas WDLWD, barely moved; Club America DDLWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Club America
Bookmakers rate Club America higher than the model does: UNAM Pumas 31% against the model's 34%, Club America 43% against 40%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
UNAM Pumas won 4, drew 5 and lost 5 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
UNAM PumasClub AmericaUNAM Pumas
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
18 conceded
08/29
09/11
09/14
09/20
09/27
10/12
10/17
10/25
10/31
Club America
7/10 over 2.5
26 scored
19 conceded
08/30
09/13
09/20
09/28
10/11
10/18
10/22
10/26
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | UNAM Pumas | Draw | Club America |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNAM Pumas | 24%4.14 | 7%13.83 | 4%24.10 |
| Level | 9%10.64 | 14%7.41 | 16%6.17 |
| Club America | 1%78.12 | 4%28.17 | 21%4.87 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4UNAM Pumas wins5Club America wins- D UNAM Pumas vs Club America 3-3
- D Club America vs UNAM Pumas 3-3
- W UNAM Pumas vs Club America 1-0
- L Club America vs UNAM Pumas 4-1
- L UNAM Pumas vs Club America 0-2
- W Club America vs UNAM Pumas 0-1
- W UNAM Pumas vs Club America 2-1
- L Club America vs UNAM Pumas 1-0
- D Club America vs UNAM Pumas 1-1
- L UNAM Pumas vs Club America 0-3
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from UNAM Pumas's side.