Mechelen
14%
Fair odds 7.24
Club Brugge
Model pick
69%
Fair odds 1.46
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mechelen | Draw | Club Brugge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 14% | 18% | 69% |
| Elo model | 15% | 24% | 61% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Club Brugge
Club Brugge are rated 237 points above Mechelen (1707 to 1470), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Mechelen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Mechelen's chance of winning and takes the same from Club Brugge's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Club Brugge
Expected goals 1.1 to 2.5. Mechelen score 1.1 a match against an average side (14th in Belgian Pro League); Club Brugge concede 1.0 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Mechelen WWWDL, gained 22 rating points; Club Brugge WWWWW, gained 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Club Brugge
Mechelen won 2, drew 4 and lost 6 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MechelenClub BruggeMechelen
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
18 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/11
10/31
11/04
Club Brugge
9/10 over 2.5
29 scored
13 conceded
09/04
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 1-1
- 0-3
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 1-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mechelen | Draw | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen | 8%12.33 | 5%22.08 | 5%20.00 |
| Level | 5%20.00 | 9%10.92 | 22%4.53 |
| Club Brugge | 1%— | 3%30.30 | 42%2.39 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Mechelen wins6Club Brugge wins- D Mechelen vs Club Brugge 2-2
- L Club Brugge vs Mechelen 6-1
- L Club Brugge vs Mechelen 4-1
- W Mechelen vs Club Brugge 2-1
- L Mechelen vs Club Brugge 1-2
- D Club Brugge vs Mechelen 1-1
- D Mechelen vs Club Brugge 0-0
- D Club Brugge vs Mechelen 1-1
- L Mechelen vs Club Brugge 0-3
- L Club Brugge vs Mechelen 3-0
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Mechelen's side.