Necaxa
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.78
Club Tijuana
18%
Fair odds 5.71
Live probabilities. Before kick-off: 24% / 24% / 53%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Necaxa: 24% here, 39% with bookmakers; Club Tijuana: 53% here, 35% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Necaxa | Draw | Club Tijuana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 24% | 53% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| Best price on offer | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana are rated 115 points above Necaxa (1404 to 1289), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Necaxa
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Necaxa's chance of winning and takes the same from Club Tijuana's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Club Tijuana
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.9. Necaxa score 0.8 a match against an average side (17th in Liga MX); Club Tijuana concede 1.6 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Club Tijuana
Necaxa LDLLD, lost 18 rating points; Club Tijuana DDWDD, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Necaxa
Bookmakers rate Necaxa higher than the model does: Necaxa 39% against the model's 24%, Club Tijuana 35% against 53%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Necaxa
Necaxa won 4, drew 4 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NecaxaClub TijuanaNecaxa
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/20
09/28
10/12
10/17
10/21
10/24
Club Tijuana
5/10 over 2.5
17 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/12
09/21
09/26
10/11
10/17
10/22
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-3
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Necaxa | Draw | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 19%5.26 | 9%11.12 | 8%13.26 |
| Level | 5%21.19 | 12%8.55 | 23%4.41 |
| Club Tijuana | 0%— | 2%51.28 | 23%4.35 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Necaxa wins2Club Tijuana wins- W Necaxa vs Club Tijuana 3-0
- L Club Tijuana vs Necaxa 3-0
- W Club Tijuana vs Necaxa 1-2
- L Necaxa vs Club Tijuana 1-2
- W Club Tijuana vs Necaxa 2-3
- D Necaxa vs Club Tijuana 1-1
- D Necaxa vs Club Tijuana 1-1
- D Club Tijuana vs Necaxa 1-1
- D Club Tijuana vs Necaxa 1-1
- W Necaxa vs Club Tijuana 3-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Necaxa's side.