Tranmere
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.10
Colchester
26%
Fair odds 3.86
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tranmere | Draw | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Colchester
Colchester are rated 30 points above Tranmere (1188 to 1158), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tranmere
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Tranmere's chance of winning and takes the same from Colchester's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Tranmere
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Tranmere score 0.7 a match against an average side (13th in League Two); Colchester concede 2.2 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Tranmere
Tranmere WDWLD, gained 16 rating points; Colchester LLDDL, lost 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Colchester
Tranmere won 2, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TranmereColchesterTranmere
3/10 over 2.5
12 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Colchester
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tranmere | Draw | Colchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere | 27%3.77 | 4%23.98 | 1%76.34 |
| Level | 19%5.39 | 16%6.33 | 10%10.34 |
| Colchester | 3%32.47 | 5%18.32 | 15%6.48 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Tranmere wins5Colchester wins- L Tranmere vs Colchester 0-1
- D Colchester vs Tranmere 1-1
- L Tranmere vs Colchester 1-3
- L Colchester vs Tranmere 3-0
- D Tranmere vs Colchester 1-1
- L Colchester vs Tranmere 2-0
- D Colchester vs Tranmere 1-1
- W Tranmere vs Colchester 2-0
- L Colchester vs Tranmere 1-0
- W Tranmere vs Colchester 2-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Tranmere's side.