FC Dallas
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.74Bookmakers 45%
Colorado Rapids
20%
Fair odds 4.93Bookmakers 30%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. FC Dallas: 57% here, 45% with bookmakers; Colorado Rapids: 20% here, 30% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FC Dallas | Draw | Colorado Rapids | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 22% | 20% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 45% | 26% | 30% |
| Best price on offer | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours FC Dallas
FC Dallas are rated 70 points above Colorado Rapids (1388 to 1318), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours FC Dallas
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to FC Dallas's chance of winning and takes the same from Colorado Rapids's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Dallas
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.1. FC Dallas score 1.0 a match against an average side (13th in MLS); Colorado Rapids concede 2.1 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
FC Dallas DLWDW, barely moved; Colorado Rapids LDWDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Colorado Rapids
Bookmakers rate Colorado Rapids higher than the model does: FC Dallas 45% against the model's 57%, Colorado Rapids 30% against 20%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Colorado Rapids
FC Dallas won 3, drew 2 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FC DallasColorado RapidsFC Dallas
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
10/31
Colorado Rapids
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
16 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FC Dallas | Draw | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 32%3.17 | 3%32.05 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.73 | 12%8.35 | 6%16.69 |
| Colorado Rapids | 5%19.49 | 6%15.67 | 14%7.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3FC Dallas wins5Colorado Rapids wins- W Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas 1-2
- W FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids 3-1
- D Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas 3-3
- L FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids 2-3
- L Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas 2-1
- D FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids 1-1
- L Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas 2-1
- L Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas 1-0
- W FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids 3-1
- L Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas 2-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from FC Dallas's side.