Chicago Fire
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.36Bookmakers 47%
Columbus Crew
34%
Fair odds 2.91Bookmakers 29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Chicago Fire | Draw | Columbus Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 23% | 34% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Best price on offer | 2.05 | 4.00 | 3.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Chicago Fire and Columbus Crew are rated almost level (1393 and 1389).
-
Home advantage Favours Chicago Fire
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Chicago Fire's chance of winning and takes the same from Columbus Crew's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Chicago Fire
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.6. Chicago Fire score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in MLS); Columbus Crew concede 1.7 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Columbus Crew
Chicago Fire WDWLL, barely moved; Columbus Crew WWWWW, gained 52 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Chicago Fire
Bookmakers rate Chicago Fire higher than the model does: Chicago Fire 47% against the model's 42%, Columbus Crew 29% against 34%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Columbus Crew
Chicago Fire won 2, drew 2 and lost 7 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Chicago FireColumbus CrewChicago Fire
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/07
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/01
Columbus Crew
6/10 over 2.5
21 scored
10 conceded
09/10
09/20
09/28
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/24
10/29
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Chicago Fire | Draw | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 26%3.82 | 6%16.84 | 3%29.24 |
| Level | 14%7.22 | 12%8.39 | 13%7.50 |
| Columbus Crew | 3%35.97 | 5%21.74 | 18%5.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Chicago Fire wins7Columbus Crew wins- D Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire 0-0
- W Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew 2-0
- L Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire 4-2
- L Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew 1-3
- L Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire 2-1
- L Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire 3-0
- L Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew 1-2
- D Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire 0-0
- L Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew 2-3
- L Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire 2-0
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Chicago Fire's side.