Inter
35%
Fair odds 2.83Bookmakers 50%
Como
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.50Bookmakers 26%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Inter: 35% here, 50% with bookmakers; Como: 40% here, 26% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Inter | Draw | Como | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 50% | 23% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 1.94 | 4.20 | 3.80 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Inter
Inter are rated 39 points above Como (1697 to 1658), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Inter
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Inter's chance of winning and takes the same from Como's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.6. Inter score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Serie A); Como concede 0.8 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Como
Inter WLWWW, gained 10 rating points; Como WWWWW, gained 49 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Inter
Bookmakers rate Inter higher than the model does: Inter 50% against the model's 35%, Como 26% against 40%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Inter
Inter won 4, drew 0 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
InterComoInter
8/10 over 2.5
25 scored
14 conceded
09/14
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/28
10/31
11/03
Como
6/10 over 2.5
26 scored
10 conceded
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/18
10/21
10/24
10/27
11/01
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 64%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Inter | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 25%3.98 | 8%12.72 | 5%19.23 |
| Level | 9%10.54 | 13%7.91 | 17%5.74 |
| Como | 1%80.65 | 3%31.95 | 18%5.58 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Inter wins0Como wins- W Como vs Inter 3-4
- W Inter vs Como 4-0
- W Como vs Inter 0-2
- W Inter vs Como 2-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Inter's side.