Mallorca
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.84
Cordoba
22%
Fair odds 4.57
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mallorca | Draw | Cordoba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 63% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mallorca
Mallorca are rated 127 points above Cordoba (1474 to 1347), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Mallorca
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Mallorca's chance of winning and takes the same from Cordoba's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Mallorca
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Mallorca score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in La Liga 2); Cordoba concede 1.7 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Mallorca WDDWD, gained 10 rating points; Cordoba DWWLW, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MallorcaCordobaMallorca
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
5 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/27
10/04
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/02
Cordoba
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/18
09/27
10/05
10/10
10/16
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mallorca | Draw | Cordoba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | 34%2.95 | 5%21.19 | 2%64.10 |
| Level | 18%5.57 | 13%7.44 | 9%11.61 |
| Cordoba | 3%33.44 | 5%21.55 | 12%8.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.