Atletico-MG
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.84
Corinthians
20%
Fair odds 5.11
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Atletico-MG | Draw | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG are rated 53 points above Corinthians (1390 to 1337), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Atletico-MG
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Atletico-MG's chance of winning and takes the same from Corinthians's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Atletico-MG
Expected goals 1.6 to 0.9. Atletico-MG score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in Brasileirão); Corinthians concede 1.8 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Atletico-MG LLWWD, barely moved; Corinthians WLDLL, lost 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Atletico-MG won 4, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Atletico-MGCorinthiansAtletico-MG
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
12 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/09
10/11
10/17
10/26
10/29
Corinthians
7/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/07
10/11
10/20
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Atletico-MG | Draw | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 33%3.04 | 2%43.10 | 0%— |
| Level | 19%5.36 | 16%6.12 | 4%24.27 |
| Corinthians | 3%30.30 | 7%15.36 | 16%6.44 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Atletico-MG wins4Corinthians wins- L Corinthians vs Atletico-MG 1-0
- L Corinthians vs Atletico-MG 1-0
- D Atletico-MG vs Corinthians 0-0
- W Atletico-MG vs Corinthians 2-1
- D Corinthians vs Atletico-MG 0-0
- D Corinthians vs Atletico-MG 1-1
- L Atletico-MG vs Corinthians 0-1
- W Corinthians vs Atletico-MG 0-1
- L Atletico-MG vs Corinthians 1-2
- W Atletico-MG vs Corinthians 3-0
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Atletico-MG's side.