Buyuksehyr
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.09
Corum
28%
Fair odds 3.58
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Buyuksehyr | Draw | Corum | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Buyuksehyr
Buyuksehyr are rated 24 points above Corum (1557 to 1533), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Buyuksehyr
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Buyuksehyr's chance of winning and takes the same from Corum's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Buyuksehyr
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.3. Buyuksehyr score 1.4 a match against an average side (8th in Süper Lig); Corum concede 1.3 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Buyuksehyr WLWDW, gained 13 rating points; Corum WLWWL, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BuyuksehyrCorumBuyuksehyr
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/26
11/01
Corum
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
16 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/31
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Buyuksehyr | Draw | Corum |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buyuksehyr | 32%3.16 | 6%16.37 | 3%36.50 |
| Level | 14%6.94 | 13%7.64 | 12%8.63 |
| Corum | 2%44.05 | 4%24.45 | 14%7.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.