Braunschweig
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.25Bookmakers 48%
Cottbus
31%
Fair odds 3.24Bookmakers 27%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Braunschweig | Draw | Cottbus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 48% | 24% | 27% |
| Best price on offer | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cottbus
Cottbus are rated 47 points above Braunschweig (1346 to 1298), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Braunschweig
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Braunschweig's chance of winning and takes the same from Cottbus's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Braunschweig
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.4. Braunschweig score 0.9 a match against an average side (13th in 2. Bundesliga); Cottbus concede 1.8 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Braunschweig LWLWL, barely moved; Cottbus LDDLD, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Braunschweig
Bookmakers rate Braunschweig higher than the model does: Braunschweig 48% against the model's 44%, Cottbus 27% against 31%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BraunschweigCottbusBraunschweig
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
08/08
08/14
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/25
10/30
Cottbus
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/16
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 64%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Braunschweig | Draw | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig | 27%3.70 | 5%19.19 | 2%45.25 |
| Level | 15%6.67 | 14%7.40 | 11%8.88 |
| Cottbus | 3%35.59 | 5%19.53 | 18%5.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.