Everton
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.86Bookmakers 56%
Coventry
21%
Fair odds 4.66Bookmakers 20%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Everton | Draw | Coventry | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Best price on offer | 1.70 | 4.05 | 5.00 |
Team news
- Jack Grealish Out
- Jarrad Branthwaite Doubtful
Most sources say Everton have no other fresh injury concerns and may keep the XI that beat Newcastle; one older preview mentioned T. George as injured, but later reports do not, so it is not listed.
- Aurele Amenda Out
- Haji Wright Out
- Josh Eccles Out
- Luke Woolfenden Out
- Bobby Thomas Doubtful
- Frank Onyeka Doubtful
Sports Mole's predicted XI has Victor Torp in midfield with Onyeka not in it; Coventry are described as 16th with three wins from nine.
Allowing for this news: Everton 55%, draw 24%, Coventry 21% (xG 1.78 – 1.01). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: dave.sport, sportsmole.co.uk, livescore.com, livescore.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Everton and Coventry are rated almost level (1554 and 1551).
-
Home advantage Favours Everton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Everton's chance of winning and takes the same from Coventry's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Everton
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Everton score 1.4 a match against an average side (15th in Premier League); Coventry concede 1.2 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Everton WLLDW, barely moved; Coventry WLLWW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Coventry
Everton will have had 4 days' rest, Coventry 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Everton
Bookmakers rate Everton higher than the model does: Everton 56% against the model's 54%, Coventry 20% against 21%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EvertonCoventryEverton
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
10 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/02
Coventry
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
05/02
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/12
10/19
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 55%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Everton | Draw | Coventry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 30%3.37 | 4%27.47 | 1%99.01 |
| Level | 21%4.78 | 14%6.93 | 8%13.00 |
| Coventry | 4%26.18 | 6%17.76 | 13%7.58 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.